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"The tax burden in countries with very big welfare states like France, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium is around 44-45% of GDI, roughly ten times larger than suggested by our model of taxation and redistribution as an insurance policy."

But the government budget is not spent mainly redistribution.

For instance, in the US welfare is typically less than 4% of GDP (not GDI—but the only stat I could access quickly!) https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/welfare_spending_history

In Sweden the welfare spend 2020 was about 12bn kroner. https://www.statista.com/statistics/530808/sweden-social-welfare-expenditure/ Meanwhile the total Government spending was 1.2tn kroner, so social welfare was about 10% of government budget.

So it looks to me that Sweden's welfare spend is exactly as the social insurance model predicted.

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